By Jason Hovet
PRAGUE, Jan 5 (Reuters) – The Czech crown retreated beyond the psychological 24 per euro level on Thursday, pulling back from a 12-year high, while Hungary’s forint continued to test four-month peaks as central European currencies remained positive to start the new year.
Stock markets also rose on Thursday, adding to 2%-4% gains posted so far in the first week of 2023.
In international bond markets, Hungary issued a total of $4.25 billion worth of dollar-denominated benchmark bonds, Finance Minister Mihaly Varga said on Thursday.
In Poland, the zloty waited on central bank Governor Adam Glapinski’s news conference after the monetary policy council left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with expectations of inflation soon slowing.
Markets have had a hot start to begin 2023 as easing gas prices and China’s emergence from its strict “zero-COVID” rules boost investor sentiment.
The crown EURCZK= on Wednesday broken 24 to the euro for the first time since early 2011, but it pulled back on Thursday, with some dealers thinking there is shrinking space for gains with a looming recession.
It traded at 24.008, down 0.1% on the day, at 0946 GMT.
“Economic factors – current account development, an economy likely in a mild recession, an expected drop in interest rates already this year – should not be acting in this direction for the crown,” Erste Group Bank said, adding early-year positioning in the past also led to gains that could not be held.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= traded at 395.25 to the euro, up 0.2% and gaining already 1% in 2023, after falling the most in central Europe in 2022.
Poland’s zloty EURPLN= fell 0.2% to 4,674 per euro.
Polish central bank arguments for stable interest rates were bolstered by preliminary inflation data from December on Thursday showing a headline rate of 16.6%, below a forecast of 17.3%.
But analysts said more attention was being paid to US monetary policy after Federal Reserve minutes.
“The global market is partially influenced by the description from the last Fed meeting, which reiterated that US central bankers do not expect interest rate cuts in 2023,” Bank Millennium said.
EEC MARKETS
SNAPSHOT
AT 1046 CET
CURRENCIES
Latest
Previous
Daily
Change
bid
close
change
in 2023
EURCZK=
Czech crown
EURCZK=
24.0080
23.9750
-0.14%
+0.62%
EURHUF=
Hungarian forint
EURHUF=
395.2500
396.0000
+0.19%
+1.06%
EURPLN=
Polish zlotys
EURPLN=
4.6740
4.6645
-0.20%
+0.33%
EURO=
Romanian leu
EURO=
4.9300
4.9302
+0.00%
+0.25%
EURHRK=
Croatian kuna
EURHRK=
7.5330
7.5365
+0.05%
+0.05%
EURRSD=
Serbian dinar
EURRSD=
117.2600
117.3500
+0.08%
+0.03%
Notes: daily change
calculated from
1800 CET
Latest
Previous
Daily
Change
close
change
in 2023
.PX
Prague
.PX
1235.79
1230.0600
+0.47%
+2.83%
.BUX
Budapest
.BUX
45168.88
44937.01
+0.52%
+3.14%
.WIG20
Warsaw
.WIG20
1879.95
1855.05
+1.34%
+4.91%
.BEIT
Bucharest
.BEIT
12145.40
12065.04
+0.67%
+4.13%
.SBITOP
Ljubljana
.SBITOP
1061.61
1057.48
+0.39%
+1.22%
.BELEX15
Belgrade
.BELEX15
824.61
824.61
+0.00%
+0.00%
.SOFIX
Sofia
.SOFIX
603.24
603.42
-0.03%
+0.29%
Yield
Yield
Spread
Daily
(bid)
change
vs Bund
change in
Czech Republic
spread
CZ2YT=RR
2-year
CZ2YT=RR
5.5630
-0.0010
+294 bps
-4 bps
CZ5YT=RR
5 years
CZ5YT=RR
5.0950
-0.0650
+276 bps
-10 bps
CZ10YT=RR
10 years
CZ10YT=RR
4.9110
-0.0470
+261 bps
-7 bps
Poland
PL2YT=RR
2-year
PL2YT=RR
6.1190
-0.2830
+349 bps
-32 bps
PL5YT=RR
5 years
PL5YT=RR
6.0880
-0.2190
+375 bps
-25 bps
PL10YT=RR
10 years
PL10YT=RR
6.1780
-0.2090
+388 bps
-23 bps
FORWARD
3×6
6×9
9×12
3M interbank
Czech Rep
CZKFRAPRIBOR=
7.08
6.85
6.43
7.23
Hungary
HUFFRABUBOR=
14.32
12.77
11.32
16.19
Poland
PLNFRAWIBOR=
6.91
6.97
6.54
7.00
Notes: FRA quotas
are for asking prices
****************************************************** ************
(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Krisztina Than in Budapest, and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)
((jason.hovet@thomsonreuters.com))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.